Must Republican Candidates Appeal to Moderates or Conservatives to Win?

Listening to the a talk radio show today there was an interesting discussion about John McCain versus Ronald Reagan and whether Republicans need to get more moderates on board or conservatives.

This misses the point.

I think there is a different distinction that is more powerfully at play that CAN win elections for Republicans.

Conservative Credentials are Critical.

Conservative (not radical right) credentials means less time and marketing dollars spent trying to shore up a conservative base.

It means the message can be lasered in on CONSERVATIVE PRINCIPLES that are likely to sway the moderate undecided voter.

Moderates who tend to decide elections fit one of these profiles:

· Will vote but aren’t into politics
· Free thinkers who buck the party establishment on both sides
· Vote based on individual characteristics and charisma than the party platform

So what appeals to moderates?

1) A leader – they look good on TV, they sound like a leader, and they seem to know what they’re talking about. They’re above the fray.

2) A message tied to current news and key pain points - and positions their opponent as the bad status quo.

3) Someone who understands them and can still win - someone people can identify with who is on their side and against the system that beats them down.

How do Reagan, Obama, and McCain stack up?

1) Leadership – Reagan (yes – great presence and solid principles that resonate), Obama (yes – great presence and solid message, even though he tends to downplay his core principles), McCain (no – great at cutting deals but that doesn’t breed confidence and people don’t know what he stands for)

2) Timely Message that Hits Home – Reagan (yes – resurrect American pride and kick some commie butt), Obama (yes – no more of the same old George Bush stuff and “change”), McCain (no – more of the same - his vision was not dramatic enough to separate himself from George Bush’s bad press and his base felt he was too liberal for them so his message was too fragmented)

3) Your Advocate – Reagan (yes – anti-establishment, cowboy), Obama (yes – let’s make sure the rich pay their fair share – us versus them works great), McCain (no – how many houses does he own? – inside the beltway status quo)

Change You Can Believe In

With an economy beaten down and big government solutions being proposed, now is the time for the underdog to break through and tell the beltway bunch that the American people want change they can believe in.

And that doesn’t mean taking more money out of your pocket to feed special interest groups and government bureaucracies.

So who will be those candidates in 2010? Time will tell…